September Heat No Way To Judge

      As I gaze out from my Kauffman Stadium press box vantage point, I see that me and a few thousand of my best friends have gathered for the final game of the Royals longest homestand of the year, and third to last, and the final game of the season series with the Tigers. And it has been quite a good one by Royals standards. The have already clinched at least a split of the ten games, and they can make it a winning one if they beat the Tigers today.

     The Royals have won four games in a row, their longest stretch of the season, and they have only done it one other time. Given that, even with this little run, it is no surprise that they are still on pace to lose 103 games. But they have other woeful teams around to make them feel better, and that certainly includes Detroit and Baltimore, who the Royals actually lead in the standings, and who have been the victims in the four-game streak.

     The hearty fans who are sweltering through this one are being treated to a real dose of September baseball when losing clubs are playing. The Tigers are fielding a team that you would expect for a club pacing for 115 losses of their own. The only player that a moderate baseball fan might have even heard of is shortstop Jordy Mercer, and even an engaged fan can be excused if they look quizzically at names like Brandon Dixon and Dawell Lugo, who just hit home runs in the fourth inning to knot the game up at three. And before the paragraph is complete, Mercer has also homered off of Glenn Sparkman to put the lowly Motor City Kitties ahead.

      The fans do get to root on faves like Merrifield, Soler, and Dozier, but this Thursday afternoon Royals lineup also features Ryan McBroom, playing his third major league game at age 27, Erick Mejia, making his debut, and .148 hitting catcher Nick Dini.  

     But these loyal Royal rooters are also the types of fans who hope that a nice finish to the season would portend good things for the future. This certainly didn’t hold true for the most recent example that you could find….last year. The Royals closed the season going 20-14, raising at least a shred of optimism for this 2019 season. But of course, they  opened the season 7-17, and the second straight collapse was on.

     There were examples on both sides of it individually. Hunter Dozier closed the ’18 season strong and has backed that up with a breakout season. Ryan O’Hearn flashed power promise, but struggled from the outset despite getting a good long look, and has spent considerable time in the minors. It likely is a far better thing to look at the individuals rather than the wins and losses, but even that can be deceiving. Playing games against middling or struggling teams, or good teams that have their post-season position locked up is not a good barometer. Opponent lineup construction is often not designed with winning in mind, bad teams trying out new guys, and winners resting people.

     But between performance, potential, and return from injury the Royals seem to have a solid core five moving forward. Merrifield, Mondesi, Soler, Dozier, and Salvador Perez are a legitimate group. Whether you can add Alex Gordon to that list is problematical. His defense is still there, and it appeared for a while his bat had rebounded. But his post all-star break performance offensively has been eerily reminiscent of the last couple of years, mostly due to an abysmal August, indicating perhaps an aging and tiring player. He would seem a good candidate for a platoon, and even though as a lefty you get 65-70 percent of the at-bats, he might not cotton to that. Of course, there is also the question of how much money he would play for, or just walk away.

     Soler is another interesting talking point. Now with 40 home runs and 100 RBI, and with plenty of time to pad those numbers, in another time and place he would seem a certainty to be part of the Royals future. But before this year he has had a hard time staying healthy, he is a poor defender, and his forty bombs come in the context of a major league season where thirty-five players have already hit thirty. Is this the proper time to see if there is a market for him, is it the time to extend him, and is this a one-off career year?

     It’s a tough call. A month ago I would have said try to deal him for sure, but he hasn’t slacked off, and he just hit the hardest ball in the Stat Cast era Wednesday. I still likely would lean toward seeking a good return for him, but I wouldn’t have a lively argument in any direction.

     Alas, the Royals early 3-0 lead and the hopes of their first five game winning streak of the year, and a winning homestand, have faded into their 90th loss of the season on this hot afternoon. But that really doesn’t matter much, as much as a strong finish wouldn’t either. Looking at the schedule that doesn’t look likely anyway, and the offseason will leave us with as many questions as answers.